Severe Weather Threat - Friday September 1st 2017

Good morning,

As most of you are aware, a severe weather threat exists across much of central North Carolina today as a result of the remnants of "Harvey" as it pulls north and east out of the Tennessee Valley.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has increased the Risk Category from "Slight" to "Enhanced", particularly for areas in the south and west (Davidson, Randolph, Stanly, Montgomery & Moore Counties in the Triad SKYWARN Area).  A graphic representation of today's threat of severe weather and embedded tornadoes can be found here:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

The following text has been copied here from the NWS SPC link above:

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are expected over the Carolinas and southern Appalachians vicinity this afternoon into early evening.

...Carolinas/Southern Appalachians... The remnants of Harvey, centered across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, will continue to spread slowly northeastward today and tonight. On the eastern periphery of remnant Harvey, a moderately strong low-level wind field will overspread the southern Appalachians vicinity including eastern portions of TN/KY and as far east the Piedmont of the Carolinas.

Although cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in some areas early this morning, a more appreciable warming of the boundary layer will occur within the warm sector especially to the east of the southern Appalachians spine and along/south of sharpening west/east frontal zone across the Carolinas where around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected. Convection will likely increase and intensify this afternoon within the convergence bands east of the center of remnant Harvey. Piedmont areas and locations just east of the mountains across northern SC into NC should have the relatively highest potential for a few tornadoes this afternoon, especially with storms developing near and interacting with the aforementioned surface front across the Carolinas where low level shear/SRH will be maximized.

As a lot of people may be preoccupied with packing/traveling associated with the start of the Labor Day Holiday Weekend, please, as always, stay abreast of changing conditions and forecasts, as well as the issuance of any watches and/or warnings later this afternoon and evening.

Due to the wide-coverage repeaters normally utilized for Triad SKYWARN Operations still being off the air, activation will be handled via the 145.150 Mhz (100.0hz tone) GARA Repeater located in northern Greensboro.  We will also monitor 442.825 (82.5) Asheboro UHF repeater as well due to it providing coverage to the southern tier counties (as well as others who may not be able to reach the 145.150 repeater?).

Please insure that any reports that meet "Criteria" (as defined by the NWS during Spotter Training) are relayed to the NWS . . . whether this be via amateur radio, telephone, twitter, email, etc..

I encourage everyone again to take the time now, prior to any onset or threat of severe weather, to review your severe weather safety plan with co-workers, family and friends . . . know where to go for safe shelter, and what to take with you/have available if needed.

Let's pray for the best while we prepare (just in case) for the worst!


NC4JH
John Hamilton
Emergency Coordinator
Triad SKYWARN